Conspiratorial thinking as a precursor to opposition to COVID-19 vaccination in the US: a multi-year study from 2018 to 2021.

Despite widespread availability of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines in the US, only about 66% of the eligible US population had taken the recommended initial doses of the COVID-19 vaccines as of April 2022. Explanations for this hesitancy have focused on misinformation about the vaccines, lack of trust in health authorities, and acceptance of conspiracy theories about the pandemic. Here we test whether those with a conspiratorial mindset, which distrusts a wide range of institutions, were poised to reject COVID vaccines before the pandemic even began. To answer that question, we reinterviewed members of a national US panel that we had previously surveyed beginning in 2018. As hypothesized, having a conspiratorial mindset in 2019 predicted COVID-vaccination hesitancy in 2021 better than prior trust in health authorities or acceptance of vaccine misinformation. Those with the mindset were also more likely to consume media that bolstered belief in pandemic conspiracies. Research is needed on the determinants of conspiratorial mindset and ways to minimize the likelihood that consequential health decisions will be influenced by it.

Misinformation about vaccine safety and uptake of COVID-19 vaccines among adults and 5-11-year-olds in the United States.

Despite increasing rates of vaccination for COVID-19 in the US, hesitancy continues to be a barrier to the full immunization of the eligible population. Hesitancy appears to be particularly pronounced among adults deciding whether to recommend that children be vaccinated against COVID-19. In this research, we tested whether embrace of misinformation about the safety of vaccination is associated with hesitancy to vaccinate oneself and to recommend vaccination of a 5-11-year-old child for COVID-19. In a national probability panel created in April 2021, we assessed belief in both general vaccination misinformation and misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines, in particular. As hypothesized, belief in general vaccination misinformation predicted the uptake in reported vaccination among adults through September 2021, and likelihood to recommend COVID-19 vaccination of children aged 5-11 in January 2022, three months after the approval of that vaccine. In addition, misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines that arose over time correlated highly with more general vaccination misinformation. For both outcomes, general vaccine misinformation predicted vaccination hesitancy beyond concerns about the health risks of contracting COVID-19 for one's family and children ages 5-11. The findings indicate that continued efforts are needed to bolster beliefs about the safety of authorized and approved vaccines of many types and not just those for COVID-19. Some strategies to achieve this objective are suggested.

The role of non-COVID-specific and COVID-specific factors in predicting a shift in willingness to vaccinate: A panel study.

Although declines in intent to vaccinate had been identified in international surveys conducted between June and October 2020, including in the United States, some individuals in the United States who previously expressed reluctance said, in spring 2021, that they were willing to vaccinate. That change raised the following questions: What factors predicted an increased willingness to inoculate against COVID-19? And, to what extent was the change driven by COVID-specific factors, such as personal worry about the disease and COVID-specific misinformation, and to what extent by background (non-COVID-specific) factors, such as trust in medical authorities, accurate/inaccurate information about vaccination, vaccination history, and patterns of media reliance? This panel study of more than 8,000 individuals found that trust in health authorities anchored acceptance of vaccination and that knowledge about vaccination, flu vaccination history, and patterns of media reliance played a more prominent role in shifting individuals from vaccination hesitance to acceptance than COVID-specific factors. COVID-specific conspiracy beliefs did play a role, although a lesser one. These findings underscore the need to reinforce trust in health experts, facilitate community engagement with them, and preemptively communicate the benefits and safety record of authorized vaccines. The findings suggest, as well, the need to identify and deploy messaging able to undercut health-related conspiracy beliefs when they begin circulating.

Conspiratorial thinking, selective exposure to conservative media, and response to COVID-19 in the US.

RATIONALE: Previous research has shown that during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, users of conservative media were more likely to accept conspiracy theories about the pandemic and less likely to accept pandemic mitigation measures such as mask-wearing and vaccination. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that during the first year of the pandemic, viewers who were prone to conspiratorial thinking engaged in selective exposure to conservative media which served to enhance pandemic-related conspiracy beliefs. METHODS: A national 3-wave longitudinal survey of 883 US respondents running from March to November 2020 assessed media-use habits, belief in COVID-related conspiracies, conspiratorial thinking, mask-wearing, intention to accept a COVID vaccine, and trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Growth curve models were used to analyze changes in conspiracy beliefs and associated public health outcomes. RESULTS: Users of conservative media were disproportionately likely to engage in conspiratorial thinking, to vote for President Trump, and to be ideologically conservative. They were also less likely to use mainstream news sources and displayed increasing belief in pandemic conspiracies. Increases in conspiracy beliefs were associated with reduced support for pandemic prevention. Although users of conservative media supported vaccination and trusted the CDC at the outset of the study, continued exposure to conservative media reduced support for both. Increasing use of mainstream print was associated with less endorsement of pandemic conspiracy beliefs. Viewers of mainstream television news did not exhibit change in pandemic conspiracy beliefs over time. CONCLUSION: Conservative media in the US have attracted users prone to conspiratorial thinking and conservative political views who are also less exposed to mainstream news. The selective use of these media enhances belief in conspiracies that pose challenges to the country's ability to control a public health crisis such as the COVID pandemic.

Patterns of Media Use, Strength of Belief in COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories, and the Prevention of COVID-19 From March to July 2020 in the United States: Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Holding conspiracy beliefs regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has been associated with reductions in both actions to prevent the spread of the infection (eg, mask wearing) and intentions to accept a vaccine when one becomes available. Patterns of media use have also been associated with acceptance of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. Here we ask whether the type of media on which a person relies increased, decreased, or had no additional effect on that person's COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs over a 4-month period. OBJECTIVE: We used panel data to explore whether use of conservative and social media in the United States, which were previously found to be positively related to holding conspiracy beliefs about the origins and prevention of COVID-19, were associated with a net increase in the strength of those beliefs from March to July of 2020. We also asked whether mainstream news sources, which were previously found to be negatively related to belief in pandemic-related conspiracies, were associated with a net decrease in the strength of such beliefs over the study period. Additionally, we asked whether subsequent changes in pandemic conspiracy beliefs related to the use of media were also related to subsequent mask wearing and vaccination intentions. METHODS: A survey that we conducted with a national US probability sample in March of 2020 and again in July with the same 840 respondents assessed belief in pandemic-related conspiracies, use of various types of media information sources, actions taken to prevent the spread of the disease and intentions to vaccinate, and various demographic characteristics. Change across the two waves was analyzed using path analytic techniques. RESULTS: We found that conservative media use predicted an increase in conspiracy beliefs (ß=.17, 99% CI .10-.25) and that reliance on mainstream print predicted a decrease in their belief (ß=-.08, 99% CI -.14 to -.02). Although many social media platforms reported downgrading or removing false or misleading content, ongoing use of such platforms by respondents predicted growth in conspiracy beliefs as well (ß=.072, 99% CI .018-.123). Importantly, conspiracy belief changes related to media use between the two waves of the study were associated with the uptake of mask wearing and changes in vaccination intentions in July. Unlike other media, use of mainstream broadcast television predicted greater mask wearing (ß=.17, 99% CI .09-.26) and vaccination intention (ß=.08, 95% CI .02-.14), independent of conspiracy beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: The findings point to the need for greater efforts on the part of commentators, reporters, and guests on conservative media to report verifiable information about the pandemic. The results also suggest that social media platforms need to be more aggressive in downgrading, blocking, and counteracting claims about COVID-19 vaccines, claims about mask wearing, and conspiracy beliefs that have been judged problematic by public health authorities.

A Novel Health-Transportation Partnership Paves The Road For Young Driver Safety Through Virtual Assessment.

Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of adolescent mortality and injury in the United States. For young drivers, crash risk peaks immediately after licensure and declines during the next two years, making the point of licensure an important safety intervention opportunity. Legislation in Ohio established a unique health-transportation partnership among the State of Ohio, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, and Diagnostic Driving, Inc., to identify underprepared driver license applicants through a virtual driving assessment system. The system, a computer-based virtual driving test, exposes drivers to common serious crash scenarios to identify critical skill deficits and is delivered in testing centers immediately before the on-road examination. A pilot study of license applicants who completed it showed that the virtual driving assessment system accurately predicted which drivers would fail the on-road examination and provided automated feedback that informed drivers on their skill deficits. At this time, the partnership's work is informing policy changes around integrating the virtual driving assessment system into licensing and driver training with the aim of reducing crashes in the first months of independent driving. The system can be developed to identify deficits in safety-critical skills that lead to crashes in new drivers and to address challenges that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has introduced to driver testing and training.

Conspiracy theories as barriers to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.

RATIONALE: The COVID-19 pandemic poses extraordinary challenges to public health. OBJECTIVE: Because the novel coronavirus is highly contagious, the widespread use of preventive measures such as masking, physical distancing, and eventually vaccination is needed to bring it under control. We hypothesized that accepting conspiracy theories that were circulating in mainstream and social media early in the COVID-19 pandemic in the US would be negatively related to the uptake of preventive behaviors and also of vaccination when a vaccine becomes available. METHOD: A national probability survey of US adults (N = 1050) was conducted in the latter half of March 2020 and a follow-up with 840 of the same individuals in July 2020. The surveys assessed adoption of preventive measures recommended by public health authorities, vaccination intentions, conspiracy beliefs, perceptions of threat, belief about the safety of vaccines, political ideology, and media exposure patterns. RESULTS: Belief in three COVID-19-related conspiracy theories was highly stable across the two periods and inversely related to the (a) perceived threat of the pandemic, (b) taking of preventive actions, including wearing a face mask, (c) perceived safety of vaccination, and (d) intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Conspiracy beliefs in March predicted subsequent mask-wearing and vaccination intentions in July even after controlling for action taken and intentions in March. Although adopting preventive behaviors was predicted by political ideology and conservative media reliance, vaccination intentions were less related to political ideology. Mainstream television news use predicted adopting both preventive actions and vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Because belief in COVID-related conspiracy theories predicts resistance to both preventive behaviors and future vaccination for the virus, it will be critical to confront both conspiracy theories and vaccination misinformation to prevent further spread of the virus in the US. Reducing those barriers will require continued messaging by public health authorities on mainstream media and in particular on politically conservative outlets that have supported COVID-related conspiracy theories.